OPEC’s MOMR for Dec: OPEC raises oil demand forecast for 2022

Oredola Adeola

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has raised its world oil demand forecast for the 2022 to 100.79mn barrel per day and 96.63mn b/d for 2021. This was contained in the organization’s Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for December 2021 obtained by EnergyDay on Monday after its release.

The report showed OPEC’s output in November rose by 290,000 bpd to 27.72 million bpd due to a recovery from outages in Nigeria’s oil production, with an average 1.23 million bpd in November, 2021, and increase in top two producers Saudi Arabia and Iraq.

The new report indicated that the demand forecast for both 2021 and 2022 was around 200,000 b/d higher than its previous estimates. OPEC insisted that Omicron Corona virus variant, would have a mild impact as the world gets used to dealing with the pandemic.

The latest MOMR showed that full-year growth prediction levels are unchanged at 5.65mn b/d in 2021 and 4.15mn b/d in 2022 which will push world consumption above 2019 levels, because of past adjustments.

OPEC said it expected oil demand to average 99.13 million barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter of 2022, up 1.11 million bpd from its forecast last month.

OPEC’s MOMR said, “Some of the recovery previously expected in the fourth quarter of 2021 has been shifted to the first quarter of 2022, followed by a more steady recovery throughout the second half of 2022,” OPEC said in the report.

“Moreover, the impact of the new Omicron variant is projected to be mild and short-lived, as the world becomes better equipped to manage COVID-19 and its related challenges.”

OPEC and its allies had earlier on December 2, 2021, agreed to boost monthly output quota to 400,000 b/d for January,2022, despite concern over the effects of the new variant and a co-ordinated US-led strategic petroleum reserve release by key consumer countries.