Nigeria to generate 60% of energy demand from renewable sources by 2050 -IRENA report

Oredola Adeola

Nigeria is expected to generate about 60 percent of its total energy needs from renewable energy sources, saving close to 40% in natural gas and 65% in oil needs at the same time, by 2050.

This was the projection made in the country’s new Renewable Energy Roadmap (Remap) jointly launched by the Nigerian government and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), reviewed by EnergyDay on Monday.

According to the publication by IRENA, the Renewable Energy Roadmap for Nigeria (Remap) developed in collaboration with the Energy Commission of Nigeria, demonstrated how renewable energy technologies are key to achieving a sustainable energy mix and meeting the country’s growing needs.

The ambitious projection was established based on the country’s growing population, which was estimated to around 181 million people, based on the future projections of Nigeria’s population taken from the United.

Nations 2019 Medium Variant World Population Prospect. Based on the UN medium population prospect the country’s figure is expected to grow by over 100% to reach around 401 million people by 2050.

The report pegged the rate of urbanisation is expected to rise from 48% to about 70% based on National Bureau for Statistics (NBS) through its household living standard measurement surveys. It says total number of households has been projected to increase from 16 million rural and 18 million urban in 2015 to around 24 million rural and 70 million urban by 2050.

The roadmap revealed that with a growing population and a range of socioeconomic challenges, Nigeria requires sustainable energy sources to meet the growing needs of all the sectors of its economy and achieve universal access to modern energy services.

Francesco La Camera, IRENA’s Director-General in his remark on the body of work said,” Nigeria can provide sustainable energy for all its citizens in a cost-effective manner, by using its abundant, untapped renewables.

He said, “Nigeria has a unique opportunity to develop a sustainable energy system based on renewables that support socioeconomic recovery and development, while addressing climate challenges and accomplishing energy security.

“Nigeria has therefore reached a vital juncture at which it must decide whether to maintain its reliance on fossil fuels, accepting the inevitable environmental and economic risks that path entails, or capitalise on its ample indigenous renewable energy resources to drive economic development, decrease energy costs and significantly reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

Las Camera said that as Nigeria commits to ever more ambitious climate targets, including net-zero commitments, planning must begin now in earnest. He affirmed that accelerating the energy transition will require far-sighted choices, discipline and wise investments, backed by international co-operation and strong
national planning in Nigeria.

Dr. Olorunimbe Mamora, Nigeria’s Minister of Science, Technology and Innovation, also in the statement on the roadmap, said that the highly distributed institutional structure of the energy sector in Nigeria means coordination of policies would be essential to unlocking integrated energy transition planning and ensuring its success.

He said, “A cross cutting agency or body tasked with doing so would be helpful in building consensus and developing a coherent plan which in turn would allow for the scaling up of renewable energy to meet the needs across the Nigerian energy sector.

“Availability of adequate, reliable, sustainable and cost-effective energy is important for the socio-economic development of any nation. Given Nigeria’s progress in this regard, it is necessary to continue identifying options for scaling up sustainable energy supply to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the country.

Dr. Mamora however noted that Nigeria is endowed with abundant renewable energy resources – namely
solar, wind, hydro and biomass that can be harnessed to scale up its energy supply and achieve universal energy access, energy security and the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions for climate change mitigation.

He noted that the assessment in the roadmap is timely, given the Government of Nigeria’s commitment.
to reducing its greenhouse gases by 20% unconditionally and 47% conditionally by 2030, as well as to reach net-zero emissions by 2060, as expressed by at COP26 in Glasgow in 2021.

The roadmap revealed that Nigeria’s share of primary energy requirements met with renewable energy can reach 47% by 2030 and 57% by 2050. It says that Electrification will play a significant role in achieving higher renewable energy shares with electricity in final energy use nearly doubling by 2050.

The IRENA’s report says that by 2050, significantly less use of natural gas and oil compared to planned policies would have profound implications for infrastructure investment in fossil fuels, increasing the risk of stranded assets.

While defending the possibility of achieving the ambitious projection, IRENA said government’s policies for the accelerated deployment of renewables are needed to unlock the report’s benefits, adding that coordination is thus essential to unlocking successful integrated energy transition planning in Nigeria.

The study presents how an increased renewable uptake scenario, named the Transforming Energy Scenario (TES), sees future capacity expansion of Nigeria’s electricity supply system provided largely by renewables, which reduces primary energy requirements.

In the TES, the share of primary energy requirements met with renewable energy reaches 47% by 2030 and 57% by 2050. In terms of final energy consumption this corresponds to a renewable share of 52% by 2030 and 59% by 2050.

IRENA however noted that investment in renewables is more cost-effective than the conventional pathway. The report suggested that if Nigeria is committed to using its abundant and largely untapped renewable energy resources, the country could provide sustainable energy for all its citizens in a cost-effective manner.

For more information about the report click on Renewable energy roadmap: Nigeria (azureedge.net)