Nigeria’s crude oil production for March edges up to 1.6 mbpd Q2, 2023 target – Survey

Oredola Adeola

Nigeria’s crude oil production for March 2023, edged up to 1.6 million barrels per day(mbpd) which was the country’s target for the first quarter 2023, thereby contributing significantly to the 28.90 mbpd pumped by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a Reuters survey seen by EnergyDay for March 2023 has shown.

The Reuters survey tracked supply to the market, based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from companies that track flows such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.

Mrs. Zainab Ahmed, Nigeria’s Minister of Finance, Budget, and National Planning, had in December 2022, during the World Bank’s Nigeria Development Update and Country Economic Memorandum in Abuja, said the country set its sight on the country’s crude oil production to reach 1.6mbpd by the first quarter of 2023, due to efforts intensify to improve oil production infrastructure and reduce oil theft.

Nigeria’s output for January was 1.25mbp and 1.3mbp for February, even as the volume produced for March came close to 1.6mbp.

The survey established that the increased output level by the largest oil producer in Africa was recorded, despite a 70,000 bpd drop in OPEC oil output in March, which was attributed to oilfield maintenance in Angola and a halt in some of Iraq’s exports.

Further revelation showed that OPEC’s output was down more than 700,000 bpd from September, and 70,000 bpd from February 2023 output level.

CAUSE OF OUTPUT DECLINE

The largest drop of 100,000 bpd was in Angola due to a small export programme and field maintenance on the Dalia stream. Exports hit a multi-month low on some estimates.

The second-biggest drop came from Iraq, where companies have reduced output in the northern Kurdistan region following a halt to the export pipeline on Saturday. Higher exports from southern Iraq limited the decline, the survey found.

According to the Reuters survey, OPEC’s output is significantly undershooting the targeted amount by 930,000 bpd because many producers – notably Nigeria and Angola – lack the capacity to pump at the agreed levels.

OPEC’s Gulf producers Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates maintained high compliance with their targets under the OPEC+ agreement, the survey found.

The OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed to cut production in late 2022 to support the market as the economic outlook worsened and prices weakened. A meeting of top OPEC+ ministers on Monday is expected to confirm the existing policy.

OPEC+ lowered its output target by 2 million bpd, of which about 1.27 million bpd was to come from the 10 participating OPEC countries. The target remains in place for March.

With the declines in Angola and Iraq this month, compliance with the agreement increased to 173% of pledged cuts, according to the survey, against 169% in February.