The Muhammadu Buhari’s Administration will be leaving Nigeria’s petroleum industry with an all-time record cumulative loss of about 70,778,762 barrels of crude oil between June 2015 and April 2023, as it ends its regime with 998,602 barrels per day, (bpd) output level in April 2023.
The 998,602 bpd for April 2023 translates to a decline of 286,398bpd, when compared with the output level recorded in April 2022, equivalent to 25.08% year-on-year.
These unprecedented crude oil losses were recorded in spite of the promises, that Buhari made during his inauguration in 2015, with a vow to tackle oil theft.
He will therefore be bequeathing to the incoming Tinubu government on May 29, 2023, a poor output, an underperformance that is unprecedented in the industry.
EnergyDay’s checks showed that Buhari’s administration took off with a crude oil production level of 1,816,000 (bpd) in May 2015, and increased it to 1,836,000bpd, in June 2015, this was based on statistics obtained from the database of Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
In 2015, the country’s crude oil outputs were 1797mbpd in July, 1859mbpd-Aug, 1923mbpd- in September, 1928mbpd-Oct, 1856mpbd-Nov, 1775mbpd-Dec.
In 2016, Jan- 1853mbpd, Feb- 1754mbpd, March- 1761mbpd, April-1672mbpd, May- 1444mbpd, June-1550mbpd, July- 1443mbpd, Aug- 1419mbpd, Sep-1461mbpd, Oct-1615mbpd, Nov-1645mbpd, and Dec-1474mbpd.
In 2017, Jan – 1533mbpd, Feb- 1564mbpd, March- 1456mbpd, April-1496mbpd, May- 1642mbpd, June-1710mbpd, July- 1711mbpd, Aug- 1802mbpd, Sep-1784mbpd, Oct-1697mbpd, Nov-1772mbpd, and Dec-1818mbpd.
In 2018, Jan- 1785mbpd, Feb- 1799mbpd, March- 1773mbpd, April-1764mbpd, May- 1608mbpd, June-1608mbpd, July-1643mbpd Aug- 1723mbpd, Sep-,1746mbpd, Oct-1760mbpd, Nov-1731mbpd,, and Dec-1733mbpd
In 2019, Jan- 1733mbpd, Feb- 1730mbpd, March, 1736mbpd, April- 1825mbpd, May- 1721mbpd, June- 1808mbpd, July- 1805mbpd, Aug-1870mbpd, Sep- 1851mbpd, Oct- 1809mbpd, Nov-1782mbpd, and Dec-1750mbpd.
In 2020, Jan- 1760mbpd, Feb- 1788mbpd, March-1848mbpd, April- 1777mbpd, May- 1584mbpd, June- 1492mbpd, July- 1467mbpd, Aug-1467mbpd, Sep- 1460mbpd, Oct- 1482mbpd, Nov-1448mbpd, and Dec-1375mbpd.
In 2021, Jan- 1328mbpd, Feb- 1477mbpd, March, 1443mbpd, April- 1455mbpd, May- 1410mbpd, June- 1401mbpd, July- 1385mbpd, Aug-1296mbpd, Sep- 1365mbpd, Oct- 1308mbpd, Nov-1381mbpd, and Dec-1279mbpd.
1n 2022, Jan- 1413mbpd, Feb- 1373mbpd, March, 1339mbpd, April- 1285mbpd, May- 1153mbpd, June- 1190mbpd, July- 1131mbpd, Aug-1043mbpd, Sep- 1015mbpd, Oct- 1066mbpd, Nov-1175mbpd, and Dec-1271mbpd.
In January 2023, the output level was 1,258,150 barrels per day, with 1,306,304 mbpd recorded in February, which later dropped to 1,268,202 bpd in March 2023, even as the administration will be ending its reign with an output level of 998,602bpd.
Based on the above analysis EnergyDay gathered that the tremendous goodwill that Buhari’s presidency earned on the sideline of his change mantra failed to live up to the expectation.
Today, with Buhari preparing to hand over the baton of leadership in his capacity as the President and Minister to President-elect Bola Tinubu, insecurity in the Niger Delta and oil theft have remained worse, while the country also struggles to catch up with OPEC’s quota.
EnergyDay gathered that the administration also failed to increase the development of more oil fields, even as major oil companies were moving away from onshore to deep water.
Analyst suggested that apart from insecurity affecting the output level, the country also recorded declining capacity to produce based on technical production. This was actually based on the volumes from the wells and fields affecting the aggregate field output.
Another major concern was the global crisis which led to shut oil due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Buhari’s administration had throughout the eight years reign attributed crude oil production level to several issues, including oil theft, pipeline vandalism and covid-19 pandemic.
Gbenga Komolafe, chief executive officer (CEO) of the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) in a recent statement in reaction to the current oil output revealed that crude oil production is currently about one million bpd below “its technically allowable capacity”.
Kelechi Ofoegbu, the executive commissioner for economy, regulatory, and strategic planning, NUPRC, who represented the CCE at a host communities sensitisation workshop attributed the low oil production to a number of issues, including the energy transition’s impact on hydrocarbon funding, a lack of investments, and insecurity.
He said, “While the commission is prioritising efforts towards increasing oil and gas production and ensuring maximum federation revenue through the optimisation of the oil and gas value chain, the efforts have been constrained by a myriad of challenges,” he said.
“These challenges range from insecurity, low investment, and de-prioritisation of funding of hydrocarbon development arising from the energy transition.
“Currently, Nigeria has the technical allowable capacity to produce about 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. However, arising from the highlighted challenges, our current production hovers around 1.5 million barrels of oil and condensate per day.”
The Buhari’s administration having identified pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and illegal refining in the Niger Delta, embarked on aggressive fight and clampdown on vandals and oil thieves.
The NNPC in August, 2022, offered a multi-billion Naira pipeline surveillance procurement to Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited, a company linked to Government Ekpemupolo also known as Tompolo, a former leader of the Movement for the Emancipation of Niger Delta.
The private security outfit complemented the combative efforts of the armed forces including the Navy, Police and Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), and other relevant security agencies, with so many success stories, including the recent arrest of over 68 vessels doing bunkering and illegal activities.
That actions against the vandals led to the discovery of a four-kilometer illegal oil connection line from Forcados Terminal into the sea which had been in operation for many years. That development limited the impact of oil theft in recent times.
Mr. Bala Wunti, Chief Upstream Investment Officer of the NNPC Upstream Management Services had in a recent statement said combined efforts of the security agencies have helped to detect, deter and limit the country’s loss of 470,000 barrels of crude oil monthly.
He then released that the efforts are responsible for an increase in the daily average from 1.1mbpd to about 1.59mbpd.